Monte-Carlo · 10,000 runs · recomputed after every final whistle
The forecast
Every finished match updates each team’s live rating; ten thousand simulated tournaments then replay everything that’s left — group tables with the official tiebreakers, the eight best third-placed teams, the full bracket to MetLife. What you see below is the probability landscape of this World Cup, last recomputed .
Title board: Spain 29.1% · Argentina 19.7% · France 12.1% · England 7.3% · Brazil 4.4% · Portugal 4.3% · Colombia 3.8% · Netherlands 2.7%
Champion race
Bracket heatmap
cell opacity ∝ probability of reaching the round
Reaching the knockouts, group by group
Mexico99.2%
South Africa16.3%
South Korea97.2%
Czechia59.6%
Canada96.6%
Bosnia and Herzegovina55.5%
Qatar12.0%
Switzerland98.0%
Brazil98.0%
Haiti13.5%
Morocco84.1%
Scotland75.2%
United States60.6%
Paraguay71.5%
Australia57.9%
Türkiye86.3%
Germany96.6%
Curaçao7.9%
Ecuador97.0%
Ivory Coast66.5%
Netherlands95.2%
Japan91.0%
Sweden52.6%
Tunisia27.9%
Belgium95.4%
Egypt65.2%
Iran81.8%
New Zealand27.6%
Spain99.7%
Cape Verde29.8%
Saudi Arabia29.2%
Uruguay93.2%
France97.7%
Iraq12.4%
Norway86.2%
Senegal76.0%
Argentina99.2%
Algeria57.1%
Austria72.3%
Jordan30.7%
Portugal95.6%
DR Congo27.2%
Uzbekistan45.4%
Colombia95.4%
England98.4%
Croatia94.5%
Ghana10.4%
Panama63.4%
How this forecast works
Each team carries a live Elo rating, seeded from public international ratings and updated after every finalized match (K-factor 40, goal-difference weighted, with a 60-point boost for the three host nations playing at home). A match between two ratings becomes a goal model: win expectancy maps to a goal supremacy, split around a 2.6-goal total, scored as two Poisson processes with a small draw inflation of 1.08.
A snapshot plays the remaining tournament 10,000 times: group tables use the exact tiebreaker code that renders this site’s standings, third-placed teams are ranked and slotted into the Round of 32 under the official allocation constraints, and the bracket runs to the final — extra time and shootouts included. Identical inputs always reproduce identical numbers; every snapshot stores its input fingerprint.
These are model probabilities for analysis and fun — not advice, and never a promise. Football keeps its own counsel; that’s the whole point. Methodology details and the model roster live on The Machines.